NFL Playoff Predictions.

If history is any guide, the Patriots could be in trouble. The Patriots host the Broncos on Saturday in the AFC divisional playoffs, and the focus of New England's game plan will likely be Denver quarterback Tim Tebow. Tebow's 72.9 passer rating won't cause anyone to confuse him with Drew Brees, and it puts Tebow among the 10 lowest-rated quarterbacks to face the Patriots in the playoffs. That news might not be as good for the Patriots as it seems. The Pats have not fared well against mediocre passers in the post-season (their last play-off loss was to Mark Sanchez); six of the nine quarterbacks on the list led their teams to victories. I know I promised never to pick games again after the Steeler loss last week but I'm having an out of body experience and it's not really me. Even with all the purveyor of doom and gloom stuff I wrote at the top, I'm going NE and even giving 13.5. I'm not disrespecting Tebow, I just don't see the Broncos beating the Pats who haven't won a play-off game since '07. 13.5 points is a lot to give but I'll take my chances with Brady and co. I realize the Texans are better than I thought and I will lean that way getting 7.5 big ones from the Ravens. I'll stay with the Saints giving 3.5 at SF. Just a feeling here even though the 49ers have the best defense of any play-off team. My Giant/Packer pick will be released later tonight or early tomorrow.

The spreads are very interesting this week.
I think the Broncos will beat the 13.5 spread vs the Pats, but will still lose the game. I'd say Patriots 38 Broncos 27

I like the Ravens in this game, but the spread will not be 7.5, not even close. Ravens 20 Texans 16

I like the Saints to cover their spread of 4 and win by a much larger margin, Saints 27 49ers 17

The big one for me can go 2 ways between the Giants and the Packers. Either the Packers win by way more than 7.5 or the Giants will win the game. I will say the liklihood of the Packers winning are high, but just for kicks i'll go with this
Giants 31 Packers 27

Duke of York, a couple of interesting side notes pertaining to tomorrow's Broncos/Patriots affair. No 8-8 team or worse has ever won 2 playoff games. I know we can all say the 9-7 Arizona Cardinals made the Super Bowl (before losing to the Steelers). The Cards, some would say, were no better than any 8-8 team during that regular season. Still, the numbers say they were 9-7. If the Broncos were to somehow defeat the mighty Patriots, they would be the first team that could make that distinction. Also, no team with a 25th or lower defensive ranking has ever won a Super Bowl. I just found those stats a little interesting heading into the head-to-head.

I see you remember me as the Duke, and yes you raise a good point of "those that shouldnt have a chance have the greatest advantage" and that can have an effect like when the Giants beat the Pats to end the perfect season. Rematches are very tough to call, and the Broncos have that magic element in them to have a shot at this game. part of me thinks that Tebow will just fall short, but the other part of me thinks that if he is that close he will find some way to pull it out. I think you are on to something in regards to the defense. We have never seen a defense win as poorly as the Pats, Packers or Saints of this year, however we did not have 3 guys contending for Dan Marino's record that late in a season, and had Rodgers and Brady went all out, maybe all 3 would have it. So it is a new age of Quarterbacking that can have an offsetting effect on defense. Defense is much more sound and more stable, thats why I like Baltimore in the AFC, however I feel that the only defense in the NFC that has any real chance of holding the offenses close enough to let their team score that amount of points is the Giants, who I have slated to beat a crippled o-line of the Packers. The 49ers lack experience in my mind, they compare to my beloved Titans a few years back at 13-3, they lack the offensive talent to come back and win, that is the issue. We will just have to see though.

Duke, get in touch with me over at rotoimbeciles if you get a chance. I agree with you that the position of QB has become, if it wasn't already, the most important position on the field. We've seen numbers this year from that position that have never been seen before. It's like offenses on steroids this year. QB's are getting much more mobile as well. The day of just the straight pocket passer might be going the way of the buffalo nickel.

You may never see a better finish than the 49ers/Saints game. I think there were 4 lead changes in the last 4 1/2 minutes.

Well I will say it appears i seemed right that tebow was likely going to be crushed, however that saints game was quite a thriller. i will say that the saints allowed for the 49ers to be in the game with poor defense and lack of awareness of who vernon davis is. the 5 turnovers certainly didnt help.